Polis Paper N° 26 – War and Peace Across the Taiwan Strait. European Perspectives on Possible Geopolitical Escalation in the Indo-Pacific.
An armed conflict between China and Taiwan appears more likely than ever. This would have major implications for the EU. However, Europe still appears to be woefully unprepared for such an escalation. Tensions have risen in recent years over the status of the self-governed region, which calls itself the Republic of China but is considered by the People’s Republic of China an integral part of its own territory. US policymakers of all stripes seem convinced that an invasion of Taiwan would be “only the precursor” to further Chinese expansionism in the region. Regional actors, including Japan or the Philippines, seem to share the analysis to a certain extent, with Japan deeming the security of Taiwan as vital to its own national security. This paper argues that the EU and its member states need to increase preparedness in fields such as security, economic resilience and overall foresight efforts. Using existing leverage and attempting to manage tensions across the Taiwan Strait are key to navigate while still upholding the EU’s core values.
To answer these questions, Lara Franken and Lena Wittenfeld analyse Sweden’s experience with the abolition of FFP, and draw parallels to the current political developments in Germany. The authors then outline strategies and instruments to strengthen FFP’s resilience.
