Written By Lukas Seelig (LS), edited by Moritz Pohl (MP)
coming to you from Polis180’s “European Economic Policy” programme
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Hey there, curious minds and all-around Brussels enthusiasts!
Welcome back to the latest edition of our nEUrds newsletter, where we dive deep into the riveting world of European economic policy with a twist of wit and a dash of insight.
This time around, we’re slicing through the complexities of the WTO, hanging out with Christine Lagarde in the EP, and decoding the latest in the tech economy. We’ve also got a sneak peek at the upcoming EDIS, and a roundup of other notable happenings in European economic policy this week. Plus, don’t miss our „Crystal Ball Gazing“ for a glimpse into the future, „By the Numbers“ for a data-driven look at a pressing issue, and „Page Turners and Screen Burners“ for your next favorite read or watch.
Strap in for a ride through the riveting world of European economic policy with us!
WTO Wonders: Navigating the Tides of Trade and Turmoil
by Lukas Seelig
Navigating New Horizons: WTO Welcomes Timor Leste and Comoros
Last week marked a significant milestone in the world of international trade as the World Trade Organization (WTO) proudly expanded its family, welcoming Timor Leste and Comoros into its fold. The accession of these two nations underscores the WTO’s ongoing commitment to fostering an inclusive global trading system that embraces diversity and encourages economic development across all corners of the globe.
Deciphering the Outcomes of MC13: A Mixed Bag of Progress and Promises
As the curtains fell on the 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) of the WTO, the air was thick with anticipation and a myriad of outcomes. The conference, a crucible of global trade dialogues, ended with the Commission and the Council out their conclusions late Friday evening. Among the key takeaways were the approval of a modest Ministerial Decision on dispute settlement reform, a decision on the Work Programme for Small Economies, and the Abu Dhabi Ministerial Declaration. These decisions, though met with mixed reactions, signal a step forward in the complex journey of trade reform and international collaboration.
The sidelines of MC13 buzzed with strategic discussions as the Foreign Affairs Council, in its Trade configuration, met at the margins of the MC13 to deliberate on pivotal issues. Top of the agenda were the restoration of an effective dispute settlement system, a multilateral solution to unblock the Appellate Body, and the advancement of negotiations on fisheries subsidies. The extension of the e-commerce moratorium and its accompanying work programme also featured prominently, highlighting the EU’s proactive stance on shaping the future of digital trade.
Sustainability at the Heart of Trade Discussions
In a landmark series of meetings, the Coalition of Trade Ministers on Climate convened for the second time, illustrating a unified commitment to sustainability. The MC13 hosted the inaugural „Ministerial Conversation on Trade and Environment,“ setting the stage for a future where trade and sustainable development – at least that is the story – go hand in hand. The discussions birthed three plurilateral initiatives focusing on plastics pollution, environmental sustainability in trade, and fossil fuel subsidies reform. These initiatives, supported by a significant number of WTO members, reflect a growing consensus on the need for an environmentally sustainable trading system.
E-Commerce Moratorium: A Victory for Digital Trade
After intense negotiations, a pivotal deal emerged from MC13, continuing the exemption of e-commerce from tariffs for an additional two years. This agreement, following the withdrawal of opposition from India and South Africa, maintains a status quo that has championed duty-free online services – the likes of which include apps, games and software, as well as digitally transmitted content such as music, video, and other digital files – since 1998. The moratorium’s extension is a testament to the global economy’s digitization, underscoring the critical role of digital trade in today’s world (digital trade already accounts for close to a quarter of global trade). However, the path forward is fraught with challenges, as ministers grapple with the task of delineating transactions for customs duties, a decision postponed to the next ministerial meeting in 2026.
Inching Towards Inclusivity and Efficiency in Trade
MC13 also heralded the entry into force of new rules aimed at simplifying trade in services, introducing more effective authorisation procedures in more than 71 markets – representing 92% of world trade in services -, alongside the groundbreaking „Agreement on Investment Facilitation for Development“ (IFD). This agreement, finalized by 123 WTO Members, seeks to leverage foreign direct investment as a catalyst for development in less affluent countries. Furthermore, the conference saw the adoption of measures to assist least developed countries in their development trajectory, emphasizing the WTO’s role in crafting a more inclusive global trade landscape. Ministers from 61 countries also adopted voluntary trade-related actions to tackle the climate crisis.
Challenges and Unmet Goals: The Road Ahead
Diving into the choppy waters of what didn’t quite sail through at the MC13 of the WTO, it’s like we hit a bit of a squall, especially on the environmental front. The big fish that got away? A deal to clamp down on subsidies feeding into overfishing. Picture this: a vast ocean where too many boats chase after dwindling schools of fish, all thanks to a hefty buffet of government subsidies. Pacific island nations and African coastal states were practically throwing the lifeline, hoping for some solid action. But alas, a few stubborn holdouts in the WTO crew couldn’t be swayed, leaving the EU to sigh deeply over the one that got away, a comprehensive agreement on reeling in those subsidies to stop the fishy business of overcapacity and overfishing.
But wait, there’s more! The ship of trade reform was sailing in murky waters, unable to chart a course through the stormy debates on trade and industrial policy, the elbow room for industrialisation, and how to green the trade seas. The EU’s map was clear: these blockades are like barnacles on the WTO’s hull, slowing down its voyage towards addressing the trade winds of today’s challenges.
And then, the agriculture saga – a plot thick with policy and tariffs, where Brazil and India locked horns. Brazil was all about slashing tariffs, while India wrapped itself in the flag of food security, standing guard over its public stockholding programs like a farmer over his fields. The EU, peering over the fence in a respective Q&A, noted the standoff with concern, pointing out that while these food stockpiles are key for nibbling away at hunger, they shouldn’t end up spoiling the market for everyone else.
The atmosphere? Let’s just say it wasn’t exactly team spirit. With everyone drawing lines in the sand, the spirit of cooperation was more ghostly than present. The EU, tapping the mic in the aftermath, expressed a cocktail of disappointment and frustration, noting the U.S.’s RSVP to the cooperation party got lost in the mail. The closing notes from the EU were a call for a little more hand-holding and a little less arm-wrestling in future talks.
ECB’s Tightrope Walk
MEPs Demand Action on Inflation Amid Lagarde’s Plea for Unity
In a riveting sequel to European economic discourse, MEPs turned up the heat on the European Central Bank (ECB) on Tuesday, delivering a stark warning that it’s high time to wrestle down the inflation beast without hiking the financial burden on the masses. This Tuesday tête-à-tête wasn’t just any parliamentary ping-pong; it was a deep dive into the ECB’s annual report, spotlighted on Monday by none other than ECB President Christine Lagarde. With a decisive 418-157 vote (sprinkled with 42 abstentions), spearheaded by former Belgian Finance Minister Johan Van Overtveldt, the message was crystal clear: failure to anchor inflation back to terra firma could see the ECB’s credibility sailing into the sunset.
Lagarde, in her plenary charm offensive on Monday afternoon, didn’t miss a beat to thank the Parliament for its navigational prowess through the stormy seas of economic headwinds and geopolitical shake-ups. Emphasizing the symbiotic saga between the ECB and Parliament, she outlined the gritty reality of the euro area’s economy, marked by the ebb and flow of inflation from a staggering 10.6% peak. Yet, amidst the gloom of sluggish growth and the specter of rising living costs, she heralded a glimmer of hope: a resilient labor market and a downtrend in inflation, thanks to a cocktail of policy action and easing energy shocks. But the plot thickens with the ECB’s monetary policy stance, a balancing act aimed at steering inflation towards the 2% safe harbor, all while navigating the choppy waters of wage pressures and profit dynamics.
Lagarde’s script took a visionary turn, calling for a common European crusade to bolster euro area resilience and competitiveness against the backdrop of high energy prices, climate change, and the digital revolution. With a nod to the EU’s commitments under the Paris Agreement, she advocated for a triad of progress in energy independence, investment in green and digital transitions, and deeper integration of the Single Market.
This Week in the Tech Economy…
In the high-stakes chess game of European tech policy, „Mistral AI,“ a vanguard French AI firm, has made a bold move by partnering with Microsoft, stirring the pot in the already simmering debate over the AI Act’s foundational model rules. This alliance includes slotting Mistral’s heavyweight language model onto Microsoft’s Azure AI platform, alongside unveiling „Large,“ a direct challenger to OpenAI’s GPT-4.
The crux of the controversy? While Mistral waged a vociferous lobbying campaign under the banner of leveling the playing field against Big Tech, whispers of a minority stake sale to Microsoft raised eyebrows, blurring the lines between championing European tech sovereignty and aligning with the very titans it sought to counterbalance. This paradox underscores the intricate dance between fostering innovation and maintaining strategic autonomy, especially as Mistral’s lobbying melodies began to harmonize suspiciously with Big Tech’s chorus, casting shadows on the firm’s „European champion“ stance.
Meanwhile, the winds of change are also gusting through the corridors of European cybersecurity, with Luca Bertuzzi reporting that the „European Cloud Services Scheme“ (EUCS) is catching a fresh breeze of controversy. A concept note from the Belgian Centre for Cybersecurity – seen by Luca – proposed decoupling sovereignty requirements from assurance levels in cloud services, a move met with skepticism within the European Cybersecurity Certification Group.
France, ever the advocate for „strategic autonomy,“ is weaving a delicate tapestry of opposition and proposal, advocating for a framework where sovereignty criteria target only the most sensitive cases, eschewing a one-size-fits-all mandate that could splinter national approaches and hike costs. Yet, amidst these strategic chess moves, the specter of protectionism and the quest for legal clarity hover, challenging the bloc to balance its digital sovereignty ambitions with the realities of a globally interconnected tech landscape, and raising pivotal questions about the true cost of autonomy in the digital age.
CSDDD: A Directive in Limbo
by Lukas Seelig
As the EU member states convened on Wednesday (28 February) to chart the course for the Corporate Sustainability and Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), hopes for a decisive stride turned into a stumble; no agreement was reached. This deadlock throws a wrench into the works, with the clock ticking loudly towards the 15 March deadline for sending a final text to the Plenary vote in April.
Initially, whispers in the corridors of power hinted at Germany and Italy being the primary blockers. Yet, in a plot twist, it turns out a chorus of as many as 12 additional member states, now including France in a dramatic volte-face, has muddied the waters of consensus, challenging the assumption that only a few were lukewarm about the directive.
In the eye of the storm stands Lara Wolters (S&D), the European Parliament’s torchbearer for the CSDDD, who didn’t mince words criticizing industry groups in France and Germany for their hotline diplomacy and slamming member states for their about-face on prior commitments — a move she decried as a blatant snub to the Parliament’s co-legislative role.
Amidst this legislative turmoil, Anna Lührmann, Germany’s Minister of State at the Foreign Office, cast a critical eye on the FDP’s obstructionist maneuvers within the EU, cautioning that Germany’s stance risks eroding its clout on the European stage. Lührmann’s forewarning — that Germany’s failure to act as a dependable partner could lead to future EU decisions being made without its input — underscores the precarious balance between national interests and collective European action.
With the early-June elections casting a long shadow, Belgian diplomats are now in a race against time, tasked with crafting an amended text that could clinch the requisite majority support among member state delegates by April’s plenary session. This eleventh-hour effort to salvage the directive underscores a newfound resolve among key negotiators, according to Euractiv, to cross the finish line at all costs — even if it means parting ways with previously non-negotiable provisions. Amidst these strategic recalibrations, the French proposal to raise the company employee threshold — from 500 to a staggering 5,000 — stands out as a testament to the lengths to which the draft law might be stretched to secure its passage, highlighting a lesson in the art of legislative flexibility and the high stakes of European consensus-building
EDIS: Revamping the European Defence Bazaar
by Lukas Seelig
A Call to Arms (and Wallets) in the European Union
Last week in the European Union, the defense sector’s buzz isn’t just about new hardware rolling off the production lines; it’s about a seismic shift in how the bloc gears up for tomorrow’s challenges. Picture this: Macron, in a move that’s part chess, part cheerleader, throws France’s weight behind a Czech-led charge to scoop up a whopping 800,000 artillery shells from beyond the EU’s borders, all to lend Ukraine a helping hand. It’s like a Black Friday sale for munitions, and no less than 15 countries are diving into the fray. But wait, there’s more on the horizon. Come Tuesday (March 05), Thierry Breton, the EU’s very own master of the internal market, is set to pull the curtain back on the „European Defense Industrial Strategy“ (EDIS), and folks, the draft is already making waves.
The Draft That Roared
Let’s dive into the nitty-gritty. The early peeks at the 27-page EDIS blueprint lay it out in black and white: a jaw-dropping 78% of the EU’s defense shopping spree, from the war’s outbreak up till last June, went to Uncle Sam and company. That’s right, the lion’s share of European defense dough is fueling American firms. The draft doesn’t hold back, calling out the EU’s defense ecosystem for sending euros stateside, highlighting a sore lack of coordination and a defense market more timid than a startled deer when it comes to delivering the goods.
Breton’s battle plan? It reads like a wishlist for a defense economic overhaul. Think of a Euro-version of the U.S. Foreign Military Sales, but with an EU twist, aiming to streamline military sales and beef up the bloc’s arsenal with a catalog of homegrown weaponry. The goal is to keep the EU’s defense contractors in a perpetual state of readiness, even when the order books aren’t brimming, courtesy of a proposed „European Defence Investment Program“ (EDIP) flush with cash to the tune of €1.5 billion – though Breton’s got his eyes on a heftier €3 billion prize.
From Strategy to Street: The EDIS Blueprint
According to drafts of the text as seen by Euractiv and Politico, the strategy isn’t just throwing money at the problem; it’s about knitting the EU’s defense fabric tighter with subsidies for cooperation, nudging civilian factories to moonlight in defense during crunch times, and even tweaking the European Investment Bank’s rulebook to play nice with defense lending. On the ground, this means creating a shopping aisle for EU-made defense gear, with governments getting first dibs, and smoothing out the procurement process so that snagging military kit doesn’t feel like pulling teeth. Or as the draft puts it: “[D]efence industrial readiness can only be achieved if member states are willing and enabled, to prioritise collaborative investment, thereby reinforcing both military capabilities and the defence industrial base on which the EU and its member states can rely”.
And the ambition doesn’t stop at just stocking up. The EDIS envisions a future where, by 2035, a third of the EU defense market’s value is homegrown, bolstered by a new „European Defence Industrial Readiness board“ to keep the supply-demand tango in sync. Plus, in a nod to the current crisis, Ukraine’s defense industry gets a seat at the table, blurring the lines of traditional EU defense programs.
Streamlined Procurement and Incentivized Production: Borrowing a page from the U.S. Foreign Military Sales playbook, EDIS proposes an EU-level mechanism to grease the wheels of military procurement, making it smoother and more cohesive across member states. This includes a common European catalogue of defence equipment, allowing governments to tap into a verified list of EU-manufactured arms and technologies.
Financial Fuels for Joint Ventures: The EDIP emerges as a linchpin in this strategy, with an initial pot of €1.5 billion earmarked to jumpstart joint procurement initiatives. Yet, the ambition soars higher, with hopes pinned on inflating this war chest to €3 billion. Beyond mere funding, EDIS envisions a regime of subsidies and VAT exemptions tailored to encourage collaborative procurement and ownership of defence capabilities, thereby amplifying the bloc’s collective defence prowess. Especially interesting: EU countries already pledged in 2007 to spend 35% of their equipment budget on European collaborative procurement and – as of today – still fail to meet that target, as pointed out by Euractiv’s security and defense policy ace Aurélie Pugnet.
Flexibility and Readiness in Manufacturing: In a bid to keep the EU’s defence industrial base not just warm but ever-ready, the strategy advocates for „ever-warm“ factories. These facilities would remain on standby, primed to ramp up production at a moment’s notice, particularly in scenarios where critical shortages loom. This approach extends to mobilizing civilian production lines for defence purposes in crisis times, ensuring that the EU’s defence production can swiftly respond to emergent needs.
Prioritizing and Targeting Defence Investments: Setting tangible targets, EDIS aims to rectify the EU’s scattered approach to defence spending. By 2035, it envisions intra-EU defence trade accounting for at least a third of the EU defence market’s value. Moreover, the strategy introduces a European Defence Industrial Readiness board to harmonize supply and demand strategies across the continent, ensuring that investments are not just substantial but strategic.
Bridging Gaps and Fostering Unity: Perhaps one of the most innovative aspects of the EDIS is its inclusivity. Picking up on a speech by von der Leyen in November last year, by integrating Ukraine’s defence industry into the fold and potentially allowing the EU Commission to act as a procurement agent, the strategy breaks new ground. This dual approach not only extends the EU’s defence cooperation beyond its traditional confines but also injects predictability and visibility into the industry, mitigating investment risks.
Safeguarding the Future: In anticipation of the EU’s next budget cycle starting in 2028, EDIS sets a robust framework for the future. By linking repayable grants with the commercialization of prototypes developed under the European Defence Fund, the strategy ensures that R&D achievements translate into tangible, market-ready defence solutions.
The Bottom Line
As we gear up for the official reveal of the EDIS, it’s clear the EU is aiming to shift gears from a defense economic backseat to driving its destiny, all while keeping the industry’s engines warm and ready to roar at a moment’s notice.
The strategy paints a picture of a more self-reliant, coordinated, and competitive European defense market, poised not just to face tomorrow’s threats but to do so with a distinctly European flair. So, as we count down to Tuesday’s big reveal, keep your eyes peeled and your wallets ready – Europe’s defense economics might just be getting the overhaul it’s been waiting for.
What else was on?
by Lukas Seelig
Monday Musings: The Green Shield of Law
Kicking off the week, MEPs dove headfirst into a debate with Commissioner Thierry Breton about beefing up the EU’s environmental defenses with some legal muscle. The plan? To broaden the list of environmental no-nos and slap on some hefty new sanctions to keep our planet’s health in check. Read the Press Release here.
Tuesday Talks: Budgets, Ukraine, and Tech Titans
Tuesday’s plenary session was all about the money, honey. MEPs chewed over the latest revision of the EU’s long-term budget, which isn’t just about counting euros but making them count — for Ukraine, with a cool €50 billion lifeline, and for the EU’s own tech and strategic sectors through the “Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform” (STEP).
Wednesday’s Wins: Banking on Defence and Defining EU Swagger
Midweek, the MEPs weren’t just warming their seats; they were setting the EIB’s agenda ablaze, pushing for a pivot in its financing policy to include more defense-readiness investments. With the shadow of the conflict in Ukraine looming large, it’s a clear signal that the EU’s not just about peace and love but also about ensuring its defense game is strong. The same day, the plenary took a double shot at asserting the EU’s stance on the global stage, calling for a balance between spreading EU values and guarding its interests like a hawk, all while giving Amazon the cold shoulder by revoking 14 access badges. Talk about laying down the law!
Thursday’s Threshold: Rental Rumble and Regulation
Thursday saw the Parliament put the final stamp on regulating the wild west of short-term accommodation rentals. With a new rulebook requiring platforms to share data with local authorities, it’s like the EU’s donning the sheriff’s badge to ensure the vacation rental market doesn’t turn city apartments into ghost towns, keeping homes homely for residents.
Council Chronicles: From Financial Frameworks to Fighting Terror
The Council wasn’t left out of the action, putting its signature on three legislative acts to tweak the EU’s financial framework up to 2027 and crowning Bartjan Wegter, a distinguished alum of Leyden University and the College of Europe, as the new EU Counter-Terrorism Coordinator. And to wrap the week, a political handshake on Friday between the Parliament and the Council marked the dawn of a revamped “Advance Passenger Information” system, a makeover 20 years in the making, aimed at tightening the net on security while keeping the skies friendly.
For a detailed play-by-play of this whirlwind week, the EPRS De-Brief on the Plenary Session is your go-to. It’s been a week of strategic shifts, legal lifts, and environmental rifts in the EU, proving once again that in the theater of European politics, the show always goes on.
Crystal Ball Gazing
by Lukas Seelig
March 4-5, 2024: The Battle Against Crime and the Energy Crunch
As we step into a new week, the Justice and Home Affairs Council is set to take center stage with a laser focus on dismantling the networks of drug trafficking and organised crime. On the agenda is the adoption of a recommendation spotlighting member states‘ best practices in this relentless fight, alongside a legislative proposal aimed at clamping down on migrant smuggling. Meanwhile, the Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) is gearing up to tackle the looming specter of energy insecurity, seeking a political nod on measures to reduce gas demand in anticipation of winter 2024-2025.
On Wednesday, back in the EU, the Digital Markets Act gears up for full enforcement.
March 7, 2024: Steering Competitiveness and Sustainability
The Competitiveness Council isn’t missing a beat, diving into debates on the late payment directive and the pillars of the 2024 annual single market and competitiveness report. With an eye on the horizon, discussions will extend to the European program for tourism 2030 and an updated maritime sector strategy, buoyed by inputs from Germany and the Netherlands.
A Week of Decisions, Debates, and Declarations
Midweek, the financial world will be all ears for the ECB’s rate decision, with President Lagarde poised to shed light on the monetary path forward. The legal landscape gets its share of attention with the JURI-Committee’s packed agenda, spanning discussions on the immunity of notable MEPs. Meanwhile, on Thursday, the U.S. braces for President Biden’s State of the Union address, juxtaposed against the backdrop of former President Trump hosting Hungarian Prime Minister Orban in a high-profile rendezvous on Friday.
By the Numbers: A Data-Driven Dive into Today’s Dilemmas
According to this Infographic by the EPRS, nearly 400 million children around the world are projected to live with obesity by 2035 – double the number in 2020! Looking exclusively at obesity in the WHO European region, which covers 53 countries across Europe and Central Asia, the “World Obesity Atlas 2023” projects that between 2020 and 2035, there will be a 61 % increase in the number of boys living with obesity and a 57 % increase in the number of girls living with obesity. A total of 17 million boys and 11 million girls aged 5-19 in the region will be living with obesity in 2035. Issues involving overweight and obesity across all age groups are projected to cost the WHO European region over USD 800 billion overall annually, by 2035.
Page Turners and Screen Burners
- Check out this thought-provoking EPRS study by King’s College London professor Philippa Webb. In her analysis, Webb examines the complex issue of immunity blocking legal actions against Russian state assets. She presents four potential strategies to navigate this legal challenge: executive or legislative actions to sidestep immunity, using breaches of international law as countermeasures, evolving international law to allow lifting immunity in cases of aggression, and exceptions for enforcing international judgments. Moreover, Webb, who earned her doctorate and LLM from Yale Law School, provides a „Table of Risk Assessment“ detailing the most viable options under international law. These include justifying the confiscation of Russian Central Bank (RCB) assets as third-party countermeasures with conditions for repayment, and seizing RCB assets under an international law exception for enforcing judgments that order damages
- For the data aficionados and tech enthusiasts out there, dive into Biden’s “Executive Order to Protect Americans’ Sensitive Personal Data.” This order encompasses a wide array of personal data types, including genomic, biometric, health, geolocation, financial data, and specific personally identifiable information. It empowers the U.S. Attorney General to block the mass transfer of American personal data to ‚countries of concern‘ and introduces measures to protect against activities granting such countries access to sensitive American data.
- Switching gears to trade matters, the 2023 Report to Congress on China’s WTO Compliance by the U.S. Trade Representative sheds light on China’s economy and trade practices. It criticizes China for relying on non-market policies that skew fair trade and market decisions, significantly distorting global market dynamics.
- Lastly, Zach Meyers, a University of Melbourne alumnus and ex-competition and regulatory lawyer, pens a compelling policy brief on Europe’s Digital Economy. Meyers highlights Europe’s burgeoning potential in the digital sector, marked by the rapid growth of successful start-ups and the adoption of new technologies. However, challenges persist, including difficulties for start-ups to scale within Europe, digitalization lags in smaller businesses, and gaps in digital infrastructure. Meyers urges the next Commission to focus on effective law enforcement, consistency in digital regulation, leveraging the single market, understanding data commercialization without infringing on privacy rights, refining GDPR for uniform application, and dismantling regulatory barriers for telecoms to foster a truly integrated single market.“
Imprint
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