Democracies around the world will elect their government officials this year; besides the much-discussed upcoming Western democratic elections, like the US elections, Polis180 is dedicated to shedding light on democratic elections in other parts of the world too. Therefore, we are proud to present our new blog series titled „The Democratic Panorama in Latin America“, in which we report on the current state of Latin American affairs focusing on general elections. Today, let’s have a closer look at the state of Brazil’s democracy and the upcoming elections on the municipal level. We also examine what implications the results may have for the rest of President Lula’s current term.
By Lars Feyen
“Tasteless theater” marks new low
“Nooo! I do not believe it! This injection! This needle! No! I want to stay alive!”
The woman convulses in seeming pain, yelling at the top of her lungs. She is surrounded by mostly middle-aged men in suits whose facial expressions range from amusement to outright boredom; some of them are filming her with their cell phones. The woman concludes with words that aim to carry the weight of her concerns: “This story, albeit tragic, painful, is a call for reflection for those who understand the seriousness and the consequences of abortion”.
Self-described story-teller Nyedja Gennari did not undergo immense pain in the situation in question but was rather performing what she described as “an abortion from the perspective of the aborted fetus”. The scene took place not in a theater or in a private space, but in the plenum of Brazil’s Federal Senate, at the invitation of Senator Eduardo Girão, member of the right-wing Novo party. The “reenactment” took place after a judge of the country’s Supreme Court suspended a ban on the induction of fetal asystole, a method of abortion. The video went viral on social media, and was described by Brazilian news outlets as a “macabre theater of bad quality” as well as a “new low in politics”.
Putting questions of quality and taste aside, this scene offers a vivid impression of the current state of Brazilian political discourse. Ahead of the crucial municipal elections and almost two years into the current term of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, commonly known as Lula, polarization and cultural clashes dominate the discourse.
Observers who wondered whether the narrow rejection of right-wing former president Jair Bolsonaro by the electorate in late 2022 could result in a more measured polity were utterly disappointed as early as 8 January 2023, when more than a thousand Bolsonaro supporters descended on the government buildings in Brasília to loot and desecrate the political institutions they blamed for the loss of their beloved idol. And his electoral strength can be seen across Brazil, perhaps more than at any previous point over the last years.
The outlook ahead of the 2024 municipal elections
Ahead of the 6 October elections on the municipal level, the country appears to be in continuing crisis mode. This year, mostly man-made wildfires across Brazil but mainly in the rainforests and the Pantanal wetlands have destroyed an area of 14 million acres of woodland and vegetation. Additionally, economic growth has been sluggish and inflation has plateaued on a stubbornly high level.
Culture wars also dominate public discourse ahead of the municipal elections. Since late August, social media platform X (formerly Twitter) has been blocked by Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes from operating in Brazil, as the judiciary has raised concerns about the influence of political fake news ahead of the polls in the fall. While the Lula government has raised the issue of fake news extensively in recent times, right-wing actors dismiss their influence almost outright and call the, admittedly extreme, measure by Moraes to block X completely a form of “state censorship”.
While most municipal races might have no or only limited direct repercussions for national politics, the mayoral race in São Paulo is arguably an important one to watch. Not only is the metropolis the economic center of Latin America’s largest country, it is also by far the largest city in the country with an impressive local budget. While Lula’s Workers’ Party had never had a too strong stance in São Paulo, the race can still serve as an indicator of where the country might be moving politically.
Incumbent Ricardo Nunes from the conservative MDB party has gained the official support from Jair Bolsonaro, while Lula is supporting Guilherme Boulos, a former federal deputy and member of left-wing PSOL. Boulos was the runner-up in the 2020 mayoral race, and early on in the campaign, a repeat between progressive and conservative camps seemed to be playing out.
However, both candidates have faced an unexpected insurgent opponent in rightwing-firebrand Pablo Marçal, who has mainly divided the bolsonaristas in the country’s biggest metropolis, while also provoking reactions from other candidates. Marçal has mainly tried to stir controversy by insulting his opponents and amplifying false statements on social media. The low point of the campaign was arguably a TV debate in which Marçal was physically attacked by his opponent José Datena, whom he had previously attacked for having an alleged history of sexual misconduct. Polls at times have shown a neck-in-neck race between Nunes, Boulos and Marçal in the first round (in the run-off, Ricardo Nunes is still favored to win).
Other candidates in the mould of Bolsonaro are running in different states, including in “swing states” like Minas Gerais. Some are supported by Bolsonaro; others, such as Marçal, have surged even without his endorsement. Close races across the country usually mean a run-off at the end of October, as no candidate clears the 50% threshold in the first round. Consolidation on the right-wing of politics means that in a lot of these races, bolsonaristas and conservatives are likely to be successful.
One bloc to rule them all
Conservative influences are not only visible on the municipal level. As shown in the beginning, they can even capture the agenda in Congress. Though Lula’s government has changed the rhetoric coming from the government itself, both chambers of Congress are still mostly dominated by opposition parties. While Bolsonaro’s PL party has the largest number of senators and federal deputies respectively, other right-wing parties also have made inroads. The government therefore depends on the good will of the bloc of center-right centrão parties.
These centrão parties have been a mainstay of Brazilian politics ever since the end of the country’s military dictatorship in the 1980s. They engage less in ideological issues and more in old-fashioned pork-barrel politics, always lending congressional majorities to a government that cannot help but offer them funding for their home districts in return for votes. Especially the current leader of the Chamber of Deputies, Artur Lira (PP), has morphed the methods of the centrão into a novel kind of art form. His contingent support for Lula for anything from budgetary questions to environmental issues has come at a high price. The ballooning federal deficit for 2024 might be the best example of how much influence the legislature has gained in a political system originally designed to be mildly presidential.
A cautious look ahead to 2026
Despite the seeming prevalence of right-wing politics, the Marçal phenomenon, mainly fueled by social media, shows that the conservative and extreme-right parties at times have difficulties reaching common ground and frequently resort to in-fighting over tactics as much as actual policy.
But no matter how much Lula’s center-left camp might be aided by such right-wing infighting: There does not seem to be a viable future for Brazil’s canniest politician of his generation. Lula has, either in person or through proxy, been a constant presence in presidential politics since 1988. A majority of those asked by pollster Ipec whether they thought Lula should run for re-election said they did not support a further candidacy of the 78-year-old.
The crisis year of 2024 marks the end of the first half of Lula’s third presidency. What the future holds in store for Brazilians is arguably more ambiguous than at any point in recent years.
Lars Feyen has been a member of Polis180 since late 2020. After being the co-lead of our connectingAsia regional program since 2022, he is currently part of our board and responsible for podcasts and legal affairs. Lars studied International Relations, Romance languages and East Asian Studies. He currently works for the German Federal Foreign Office.
Image via unsplash.com
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